Ahead on all fronts

The wonder of Nicholas Carr’s book, the Big Switch, is not in its ability to predict future changes of computing, but in making the reader realize how far towards completing those changes we really are. These changes are not making the front pages, but there are signs of them everywhere.  Yesterday, in the back pages of the Wall Street Journal, a small headline announced Google’s release of App Engine, a tool that allows software developers to run and build their web applications on Google’s technology infrastructure. One of the many benefits of the new service is that it saves companies and developers the headache of rearchitecting their websites and applications in order to accommodate increasing traffic. If successful in capturing the 10,000 small to medium size users that can use the beta version for free (down the road, Google plans make the service available to everyone and charge a small fee), larger companies should fall in line. Now that even one developer, via App Engine, can derive the benefits of Google’s technological infrastructure, companies with a technology infrastructures inferior to Google could find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

Closer than we think

Google’s announcement and other similar services are evidence that Carr’s depicted transformation is happening even faster than we thought.  The service and others like it can capture users much faster than electric utilities could at the turn of the 20^th century. Whereas Samuel Insull had to convince the biggest users (industrial businesses) before he could go after the rest of the market , Google’s AppEngine, Amazon’s EC2 , and Salesforce’s AppExchange can capture any user, regardless of size, and charge accordingly (i.e., by the amount of space or traffic a particular website or application receives).

As more and more applications are created and used online, there will be less of a need for installing applications on a hard drive. The software model of generating revenue per number of installations/users (think MS Office) seems to be in serious danger, though companies with large resources should not have trouble moving from a download/buy and install model into an online access and use model. The trend towards online applications use and remote data storage facilities substantiates the terminal PC model Carr talks about in Chapter 4.

Consumers and manufactures fall in line

Developers and big companies are not the only players moving towards the utility model. Consumers are also falling in line. Apple’s new MacBook Air, the world’s thinnest laptop computer, is a good example. The strong buzz and demand for the laptop demonstrate that consumers are willing to adopt the “thin client” model, where a PC becomes merely a monitor that connects to the internet. The MacBook Air has no CD/DVD drive, no security slots, and no Ethernet ports. It really is more like a terminal that wirelessly accesses the internet.

The MacBook Air cannot be used alone; it functions primarily as a secondary computer. People who buy or intend to buy the device store or back up their files on a different device. This creates tremendous inefficiencies.  Even most without a MacBook Air use more than one computer and must transfer and/or update files on multiple computers. These days even files or photos on cell phones need to be synchronized. The problem compounds with the increasing popularity of Macs and the difficulty of transferring files between PCs and Macs. For example, someone who owns a Mac will usually have to use PC at work or at school.

These inefficiencies has been addressed by companies like SugarSync, which provides a web-based service that synchronizes and updates all your devices with the latest changes, whether they’re Macs, PCs, or Treo phones.  Even our law school has Webshare, also a web-based file sharing service, to address the multiple computer problem and save students the hassle of having to put a document on  a USB drive or e-mailing it to themselves in order to print from the Law School printers (not much of an efficiency gain since a user must down load the file in order to make changes and re-upload it again once the file is changed. Same hassle, different format). Nevertheless, as security, service, reliability and bandwidth increases, it will be difficult to resist the efficiency and cost savings of keeping, accessing, and backing up all files and applications online rather than storing them, installing them, and synchronizing them on multiple devices. As others have pointed out, with the advance of technology and the concomitant drop of data storage costs, we may reach a point where it may not be cheaper to have data stored remotely than on our own computer. But the advantage of utility computing is not just in costs – its foundation also lies in the convenience/efficiency of being able to plug into the grid from anywhere at any time while retaining access to the necessary data and applications one may require or desire. 

Computer manufacturers are already adapting. They have committed to developing a new category of computers that fit Carr’s terminal model. Netbooks, as they are called, are small portable devices with small screens, no hard drives, and minimal storage capacity. They run on Linux rather than Microsoft’s more expensive and memory intensive Windows. Netbooks allow user to perform minimal tasks, but they are essentially terminals that allow people to access the internet wirelessly. Ten computer manufactures have committed to making 20 different models with projected sales of 50 million annually by 2011 (see Netbook link). The terminal model of computing appears to be arriving even before the move towards utility computing/web-based services is complete.

Mutual reinforcement is speeding up the switch

The most surprising aspect of Carr’s book is that the trends he depicts are being advanced in all fronts: data/utility companies are continuing to increase capacity as well as web-based application/development platforms; developers and small to medium size companies are using the capacity and platforms of companies like Amazon and Google in addition to subscribing to software-as-a-service businesses like Salesforce.com and Netsuite; and consumers are playing their part by buying the platforms conducive to utility computing such as the Macbook Air and Netbooks. The three movements are mutually reinforcing; if they can converge effectively, it has hard to see how the move towards utility computing and web-base services can fail. Whether we like the big switch or not, Carr may be right when he says, "personal choice has little to do with it" (23).

 

Comments

[Nathan Richardson]

The Macbook Air isn't a thin client - it's a fully functional PC. It's not as powerful in some ways as mainstream laptops, but it can certainly be used by itself.

[Mario Velez]

While the MacBook Air is not literally a “thin client”, my point is that it moves us closer in that direction than any other mainstream laptop. With only one USB port, no DVD/burner drive, no firewall ports, and no Ethernet port, the reality is that a significant portion of the people who buy the MacBook Air do not and cannot use it as their sole computer (e.g., if you ever wanted to burn a CD or go online where there is insufficient wireless signal strength or only ethernet cord outlets, you could not do so). I do think this will change. As more and more computing functionality moves online, there will be even more MacBook Air-like computers with even fewer ports. These systems will function even closer to the thin client terminal model.

[Piyush]

SaaS and virtualization of service does help cut down storage costs and is energy efficient but it presupposes a huge spread of web connectivity as well as very high speeds, as virtualization increases it will make demands on network infrastructure, internet speeds, and data security.